Simpson's findings are based on a model called Bayes' theorem and a branch of mathematics called Bayesian statistics. Simpson started his calculation with the number of individuals who would most likely live in a given alien civilisation, and came up with about 50 million or fewer individuals, media reported.
    
He noted that animals on Earth have a widely known relation between size and the number of individuals – the smaller the species is, the more individuals of that species tend to exist.
    
For example, an alien seeking life on Earth would be far likelier to run into a mosquito than a blue whale.
    
However, the relation between size and population can also be plotted on a curve against probability, which predicts  that the median weight of an alien would be about 314 kg - about the size of a bear or an elk.

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