New Delhi: If pre-poll surveys conducted by various agencies are to be believed, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi’s charisma is set to fetch a bigger victory this time. The pre-poll surveys reveal that Modi is going to clinch a hat-trick with winning nearly two-third majority in 182-member state assembly.

A joint opinion poll survey conducted by ABP News-Nielsen shows that BJP is going to win 124 seats, seven more than the 117 which the ruling party had won in 2007. Congress is likely to bag 51 seats. In 2007 polls, Congress was confined to just 59 seats. Former Chief Minister Keshubhai Patel's Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP) is likely to get only three seats. The survey also makes it clear that around 53 percent voters want to see Modi as Prime Minister.

Zone Wise Poll Predictions

Saurashtra-Kutch: Despite Patel's influence in Saurashtra-Kutch region, BJP is likely to win 39 out of the 54 seats. Congress is expected to bag only 11 seats. Keshubhai’s GPP is likely to grab only three seats in the region.

Central Gujarat: There are indications that BJP will gain two seats while the Congress will lose its four seats in this region. This suggests that the BJP can occupy 50 percent of the seats in the region.

North Gujarat: Out of the 53 seats, BJP is likely to register thumping victory on 39 seats while the Congress is likely to get only 14 seats.

South Gujarat: It is projected that the Congress will win only 8 seats from this region whereas the BJP may bag 26 out of the 35 seats. In 2002 and 2007 elections, the opposition Congress had given a tough fight to the BJP in the region.

The LensOnNews survey stated that the BJP is likely to secure 46 percent of the total votes polled and the Congress to get only 36 percent, followed by six percent to GPP. It projected 53 seats for the Congress and just one seat for GPP. According to it, the BJP is set to win a near two-thirds majority by clinching victory on 122 seats.

The survey conducted by the CSDS claimed that there was positive 1 percent swing in favour of the BJP. In 2007, BJP had polled 49 percent votes. It stated that the Congress’ vote share will fall by 2 percent and it will poll 36 percent this time compared to 38 percent of 2007.

The NDTV survey has forecasted that the Congress will bag 59 seats this time too.

India Today-ORG survey which says Modi will win 128 seats.

Other surveys predicted that the GPP is expected to cut into the votes of the Congress and not of the BJP.

An emphatic win in Gujarat polls is likely to pave ways for Modi to lead his party, BJP, in the next general elections slated for 2014.

A record 68 percent voter turnout was registered in the first phase of the Gujarat Assembly elections on Thursday. The second phase will be held on December 17 while the counting of votes will be taken up on December 20.


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