Its earlier GDP estimate for 2013-14 was 5.5 percent. The agency also warned the government of overshooting the fiscal deficit target at 4.8 percent due to poor revenue growth and pegged it at 5.2 percent this fiscal. (Agencies)
"GDP growth for FY14 will come at a decadal low of 4.8 percent because of the host of issues which we are facing at present," Crisil managing director and chief executive Roopa Kudva told reporters.
"I think we are at the bottom but a rapid recovery from here is unlikely. It will be an L-shaped recovery from here on," she added.
Kudva said however that agriculture, on the back to good monsoons, holds the potential to push the overall GDP growth number to up to 5.2 percent.
"We are expecting agriculture to grow by 4.5 percent this fiscal, which is double that of last year. However, if this number goes up to 6 percent, the overall GDP growth will get pushed to 5.2 percent," Kudva said, adding that rural consumption will also be a big push for growth.
Crisil expects tractor sales to grow 16-18 percent as against last year's de-growth of 2 percent and two-wheeler sales to go up to 4-6 percent as against the 2.9 percent last fiscal.
The economy grew by 5 percent in 2012-13 driven down by a slew of factors such as weak external demand, expenditure cuts by the government to meet the fiscal deficit targets, dip in agricultural growth due to poor monsoons, high interest rates and a perceived policy paralysis.
A widening Current Account Deficit, which touched an all time high of 4.8 percent in the previous fiscal, has resulted in a dip of over 20 percent in the rupee this fiscal, which only compounds the worries on the growth front.
Its earlier GDP estimate for 2013-14 was 5.5 percent. The agency also warned the government of overshooting the fiscal deficit target at 4.8 percent due to poor revenue growth and pegged it at 5.2 percent this fiscal.