Since the date of filing nomination papers, the gulf of difference in the poll preparations between BJP and Congress started to become apparent. BJP seems to be sweeping a good majority of seats in the state, something which recent opinion polls also suggest.

However, victory in the state is certainly not going to be a cake walk for the saffron party which has to counter rebellion on several seats over ticket distribution.

The most notable example is of expelled BJP leader Jaswant Singh, who has decided to contest LS elections as an Independent from the Barmer constituency after he was denied party ticket.

On some seats in Rajasthan, a multi-cornered contest is expected and it can certainly be a dampening prospect for the Modi camaraderie, also possibly dashing BJP’s well calculated optimism of clean sweeping the general elections here.

The puffed up Modi wave can also be sensed in the length and breadth of Rajasthan but in order to translate it into votes, BJP will have to prevail over several impediments.

The general elections in 2004 and 2009 put forward an interesting trend that would possibly lift BJP’s already soaring morale in the state.  The trend confirmed that the ruling party always does exceptionally well in the Lok Sabha elections in Rajasthan.

In 2003, when Vasundhra Raje became the Chief Minister by winning 120 assembly seats, BJP almost cleaned out Congress from the state in the subsequent general election in 2004. The saffron party won 21 out of 25 Lok Sabha seats.

In 2009, the tables were turned upside down as the ruling Congress party managed to win 20 out of 25 LS seats, leaving BJP high and dry with just 5 seats.

The BJP won 163 seats in 2013 Rajasthan Assembly polls under Raje; therefore the party is expected to win an overwhelming majority of the seats in the state this time around.

Another reason for the immense sanguinity in the BJP camp is the fact that Congress is already on the back foot after last year’s humiliating defeat.

With senior leaders showing little interest in contesting elections from Rajasthan, the Congress might have already accepted defeat in the state.


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