New Delhi: In fact, the assembly poll result of Ganga-Yamuna belt in the western Uttar Pradesh is going to affect the state as well as national politics as the Congress has struck pre-poll alliance with the Rashtriya Lok Dal. RLD supremo Ajit Singh was inducted into the Union Cabinet as Civil Aviation Minister. The western UP is considered to be the fiefdom of the RLD. In the sixth phase, there are 68 seats spread over 13 districts that will go to polls on Tuesday. This phase has witnessed high voltage drama of political leaders and massive campaigns. The prestige of several leaders including Chief Minister Mayawati, Ajit Singh, Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav, former UP Chief Minister Kalyan Singh, former Bharatiya Janata Party president Rajnath Singh is at stake in this phase. The Congress-RLD alliance and the SP are in slugfest for grabbing the Muslim votes while the BJP is trying to mobilize the Backward Classes in its favour on the issue of Muslim reservation besides its traditional vote banks of upper castes.

The political clout of Bahujan Samaj Party supremo Mayawati and Ajit Singh’s fiefdom will be determined. The fate of Ajit Singh’s son Jayant Chaudhary, Anuradha Chaudhary who recently switched from the RLD to the SP, Rashid Masood, BJP leader Hukum Singh, BSP minister Ramveer Upadhyay will be sealed in the EVMs on Tuesday. Ghaziabad will also go to polls on Tuesday. Certainly, former BJP president Rajnath Singh’s political stature will be gauged as he represents Ghaziabad in the Lok Sabha. However, the parliamentary and assembly polls are different game altogether. It would be interesting to see the charisma of Kalyan Singh whether his son Rajveer Singh can manage to win from Debai assembly seat. Kalyan has been the bête noire of Rajnath Singh. In a changed scenario, this phase is likely to give unprecedented poll results.

Challenges for BJP

If we have a look at 2007 assembly poll results in these constituencies, the BSP grabbed 37 seats out of 67 followed by the BJP. The performance of the BSP in this region enabled Mayawati to form government on her own in 2007. The BSP not only snatched the traditional Muslim vote banks of the SP but also grabbed BJP’s main strength of upper castes’ supports. The saffron party is all set to settle the score with the BSP besides mobilizing backwards communities in its favour. Vaishya voters are also in sizable numbers in the constituencies dominated by Jat-Gujjar-Muslim-Lodh and Dalit. The SP and the BSP are trying hard to encash minority reservation issue raised by the Congress in the poll season.

The BSP might face huge electoral loss on Mayawati’s home turf Badalpur. The Muslims seem disenchanted with the BSP this time. Similarly, the Brahmin, Thakur and Vaishya voters are apparently annoyed with the SP and the BSP. Clearly, they are inclined either to the Congress or the BJP. But upper castes are favouring the BJP as the RLD struck pre-poll alliance with the Congress. The BJP seems to be in straight fight either with the Congress or the SP in most of the constituencies falling under

Saharanpur and Muzaffarnagar districts. The Congress, the SP and the BJP are riding on the anti-incumbency plank against the BSP government. The BJP is giving tough fight to the SP with the support of Brahmin, Thakur, Saini, Punjabi, Gujjar, Kashyap and Tyagi voters.

Mayawati is banking on its traditional Dalit vote base. The problem has mounted for the BSP in Aligarh, Mathura, Hathras, Bulandshahr, Meerut, Gautam Buddha Nagar and Ghaziabad districts. As the Jats are traditional vote banks of the RLD, the BJP is eyeing on influential communities’ votes on the seats where the former has not fielded its candidates. After Kalyan Singh’s ouster from the party, the BJP has strived hard to fill the vacuum of its Lodh vote banks by bringing former Madhya Pradesh CM Uma

Bharti into its fold. The party is using Babu Singh Kushwaha against BSP to woo his community in its favour.