London: The population on earth will stabilize around the middle of the century, scientists have predicted. The findings, obtained with a model used by physicists, coincide with UN's downward forecasts, Spain-based Scientific Information and media reported. According to UN, the world population in 2100 will be within a range between 15.8 billion according to the highest estimates and 6.2 billion according to the lowest a figure that stands below the current 7 billion.

A mathematical model developed by a team from Autonomous University of Madrid and CEUSan Pablo University seems to confirm the lower estimate.

The team started with a situation where birth rate and mortality rate were high, with slow growth favouring the former. But the mortality rate fell sharply in the second half of the 20th century. However, past three decades have seen a steep drop-off in the number of children being born.

The model's S-shaped sigmoid curve reflects this with an inflection point in mid-1980 s when population growth slows down & stabilizes by 2050.


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